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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."