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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance and Settled Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite survey data indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if Europe may not be the boiling pot of British politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which young people can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.

An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past

All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.